nice job cyrus!

my friend cyrus had 2 nice cashes in the recent “march madness” tournament at TS, including a 3rd place finish in the $750 main event, good for $22k. congrats!

cyrus is a very good cash and tournament player, but he was starting to feel down on poker for a while. we’ve all been there… sometimes the variance is just so brutal, you wonder why you indulge it. but after $30k worth of cashes in the last month, i think his attitude  has probably been suitably adjusted ;)

cyrus: listen dude, don’t forget who gave you all that positive reinforcement — not to mention who supplemented your bankroll in the 15-30 game for a couple years LOL

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sometimes it doesn’t add up to enough

top pair king kicker, nut straight draw, 3rd nut flush draw.  sounds pretty good on paper, right?

playing 2/5 NL last night:

i open early for 20 with K♣Q♠. i’ve been opening quite a few pots. my stack is around 800. two callers behind (standard for this game). greg, a professor at SUNY Albany who’s a strong player with a very big stack, calls from the blind. flop is Q♥J♠T♠. greg checks, i bet 60 with my top pair and straight draw. late position players drop, greg check-raises to 160, i call. turn comes with another spade, like 3♠, and greg leads out for 225. “you might have outplayed me, but i guess i don’t care”, i say as i fold my top pair/second kicker, straight draw, flush draw face up. the dealer scoops up my cards and ships greg the pot. a couple mouths at the table hang open. “did you have a spade???” one asks. yeah, the queen i say.

here’s the thing about that hand: although i’ve got as many as 20 outs against something like and i could be leading against something like A♠J♦, there are soooo many hands where i’m drawing dead, or drawing thin for a split, that could be in greg’s range there. A♠K♦ or A♦K♠, A♠8♠, A♠Q♦, K♠9♥, K♠8♠. he could be freerolling with K♠Q♦

greg didn’t show, and i haven’t had a chance to ask him yet, but i picked up a bit of conversation he was having with his neighbor which makes me think he was wondering how he could have got more out of me.

i had one of those rocky sessions where i started off in a pretty deep hole through no particular fault of my own, struggled back to even over the course of many hours. was thinking about quitting almost even but i didn’t and this hand came up:

a couple limpers, i call in small blind with Q♣2♣ and fred, the uber-rock in the big bland, knocks the table. the flop brings A♣7♣4♣ — yahtzee!!! i check, fred leads out small for 15 and the random guy on his left randomly makes it 30 to go. it gets back to me and i make it one stack (100) to go. fred and i are pretty deep, over 900, and random guy is kinda short. fred calls, random guy mucks. i’m hoping fred flopped a flush also with his free big blind hand. turn is 7♦. i’m not crazy about that card, but fred’s not a tricky guy and i think he would have led out bigger on the flop with a set so i’m probably safe. nonetheless, i check. fred bets 125. didn’t expect him to bet, but i call. river is 3♣, another card i didn’t really want to see. i check and call 200. you could make a pretty good case for folding there against fred, but there’s a lot in the pot. leading out with a blocker might be a good play too. but anyway, i check/call, and fred shows K♣8♣. you know you’re running good when you flop the 2nd nuts and the guy who has 2 completely random cards in the big blind flops the nuts. ugh!

i had been running good in cash games most of the year, but for the last 2 months i feel like i’m swimming upstream all the time.

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just can’t fold those kings

i played the 300 event in turning stone’s “super stack” series thursday for over 11 hrs. finished 18th (out of 124 starters), which paid… nothing.

interesting hand in level 2: i’ve got KK. strong player in early position opens for $275. i make it $700, and another strong conservative player (i think his name is joe, i can never remember his last name, but he makes a lot of final tables) in the big blind flat calls. his range is very narrow there, he’s not a small-pair-hoping-to-flop-a-set kinda guy. first raiser goes up again, to $1750. he’s got about $12k total and i’ve got him covered. big blind is deep too. i don’t want to call here, because then the big blind has odds to call behind. i make it $5k straight and big blind folds. early guy moves in for $7k more. i really don’t like my hand at all any more, but i’m getting 18 for 7, and i’ve got kings dammit. i make a little speach out loud: “i don’t think i’ve ever laid this hand down in a tournament before, but if i was going to fold it, you’re probably the guy i’d do it for”. i get no reaction. i’m really really close to folding, but at the last instant my inner donkey comes out, and i push the chips in. he shows me AA, of course… and then i suck out on him. on the river. horrible! i’ve never put myself on tilt so bad by winning a hand in my life.

in retrospect, that last call isn’t too bad… i only need him to have something other than aces about 20% of the time to make the math work. but that’s just an excuse. i really knew i was beat,  i had a chance to make the superstar play, and i couldn’t do it. if we didn’t have the 3rd player in between, we would have seen a flop with substantial money still behind. not sure what happens after that, but i’m guessing the money doesn’t go in before the river.

i had a really tough table that didn’t break all day until we got down to 2 tables. the guy on my left was a 20 yr old kid from lansing michigan. he tortured me all day long. i thought he played great, i hope he won it (2 days later, results still haven’t been posted).

i made a really weird call sometime in the middle of the day. i’ve got AQs in early position and a clueless and erratic guy calls my raise from the big blind. the flop is T92 with 2 spades and he check calls 1/3 of his stack.  the turn is another deuce and he moves in for $4500 into a $6500 pot. i say to him “why would you shove on THAT card?” but he doesn’t seem to understand the question. never mind… “i don’t have anything”, i tell him, “but i really want to call”. another clueless guy decides i’m just hollywooding pre-fold and calls the clock on me, despite the fact that i’ve only been thinking for a minute and been playing my hands quickly all day. a couple other guys at the table give him a hard time about calling the clock, but it doesn’t really bother me. finally i throw in a pink chip with my no-hand/no-draw monster and he shows JT offsuit. ok, i still don’t get it, but i don’t know why i even bothered to try to make sense out of this randomness. ugh.

after we broke down to 2 tables i get it all in for $40k near the bubble against the chip leader. he’s got almost $400K with blinds at 1k/2k and he opens for 5k. he’s not a strong player… a couple minutes ago he overcalled a decent-sized all-in and an all-in call, and flipped over KT (!). this time he opens for 5k and i make it 15k to go with AKs. he puts me all in. i love my hand in this spot. i think half the time he’ll show AT or KQ or some other garbage. i call and he shows 99, not what i wanted to see, but it’s a coin flip. if i double up here i’ll be in the money and have enough chips to make a serious run at the big money. but of course he flops a set to end my hopes.

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strange experience

i need to phrase this post in such a way as to not be found on google by a
certain gambling megacorporation’s security attack dogs…

years ago, i learned to count cards at bl*ckj*ck. it was just a hobby and i
never made any really serious money at it, but for a while i was moderately
successful and got a lot of free vacations to las vegas and other places.

counting cards isn’t all that hard, but getting away with it is. casinos and i
have something in common – we only like to play games we can beat in the long
run. if the casino figures that they can’t beat you in the long run, they take
their ball and go home. usually this takes the form of some guy in a suit saying
“sir, we have to request that you don’t play bl*ckj*ck here any more”. it’s usually
very civil. although my non-counting friends think this is cool, counters know
that getting “backed off”, as we say, is a sign that we failed in our job of
flying under the radar.

i should point out that card counting isn’t illegal or “cheating” under any
reasonable definition of the word. a counter is just using information that’s
available to all players. i got backed off several times during my bl*ckj*ck
career, but the only really unpleasant experience i had was at h*rr*h’s las
vegas a couple years ago, where i got “trespassed”. in nevada, if they read you
the “trespass act” they have the right to have you arrested for trespassing if
you return to their casino. on that occasion, h*rr*h’s knew who i was, since i
had given them my comp card for the purpose of trying to qualify for free rooms
on future visits. for a mid-limit counter like me, juggling the desire for
anonymity and the desire for free stuff is an important part of the game. on
that occasion, the h*rr*h’s guys were real jerk about the whole thing in my
opinion. they read me the trespass act in public, and had 2 uniformed security
guys escort me out. since then, i’ve avoided playing at any h*rr*hs properties.
this put a serious crimp in my style, since h*rr*h’s owns half the strip these
days. that’s one of the reasons i’m pretty much retired from bl*ckj*ck.

the other day i had a couple hours to kill before a poker tournament at the
bellagio. i walked over to the place with the eiffel tower, to see what their
bl*ckj*ck games looked like. to my surprise, they were dealing a double deck
game with good penetration, and i decided to play a few hands. i figured i’d
play a short session and remain anonymous. after a rough start i came back and
finished after 1/2 hour up a couple hundred, tipping the dealer way more than a
professional counter would. i walked through the mall to b*lly’s, their sister
casino. b*lly’s also had a good looking double-deck game. a few more hands won’t
hurt right? after 20 minutes, i got a tap on the shoulder. uh oh. he started out
as expected. “sir, we think your bl*ckj*ck play is a little too strong for us”.
ah shucks, you’re gonna make me blush. then, after i politely declined the
nice man’s request to see my ID and gave him a fake name, he brought over 2
security guards and had one of them read me the trespass act, stressing that i
wasn’t welcome in ANY h*rr*h’s property. WTF? they trespassed me after less than
an hour combined session at the green chip level — my first session at any of
their stores in years!. although i’m not in touch with the bl*ckj*ck world any
more, this was unheard of when i was playing actively. then the suit asked me a
scary question: are you staying at a h*rr*h’s property? i’m thinking, would you
SERIOUSLY kick me out of my hotel room for playing an hour of bl*ckj*ck with a
small edge? i told him no, but that answer wasn’t quite accurate. i had visions
of returning to my room at the other place to find my stuff out on the sidewalk.
since i’d been trespassed, they could technically have me arrested for walking
through the casino on my way to my room.  that seems awfully paranoid, but then
the whole incident was kinda surreal.

i’m still not sure how they picked me off so quickly. its possible that their
facial recognition software works a lot better than it used to, and they matched
my picture from years ago. but if that was the case why didn’t they know my
name? or maybe they were just watching me from above. but in the old days they’d
never be sure enough you were a counter to bar you after less than an hour of
observation. maybe times have changed…

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cruising the strip in style

[i actually wrote this post on 11/13 but i didn't have internet access in my hotel so i never got around to posting it].

i’ve been in vegas the last few days. my friend jim l was out here for the 1st 3
days, so we did some touristy stuff like eat too much, drink too many
margaritas, etc.


a highlight was renting a lotus elise for an afternoon and driving around aimlessly with the top down on a nice sunny day. we took it out to red rock canyon and did the loop through the park. it’s a fun car to drive, but not real practical around town. the clutch takeup is really short and i never quite got the hang of smooth starts, stalling it a couple times at lights. it’s much easier and more fun to forget about smooth… spool it up and dump the clutch. woohoo.

unless your day job is with cirque de soleil, you probably won’t find it very easy to get in and out of the driver’s seat, which is about a foot below the door sill.

i came out to play some events at the venetian’s deep stack extravaganza
tournament series. i’ve played 3 events so far. in the 1st one, i lasted 12
hours almost to the minute, busting out at midnight in 21st place out of 380 or
so starters, for a moderate cash.

in the 2nd event i played, i was coasting along for a couple hours when, with
blinds at 200/400 with 50 ante, this hand came up: i’ve got about 14,000 chips.
after a mid position limper, i make it 2000 to go from late position with pocket
tens. loose cannon in the blind reraises all in for 8000 or so. against some
players this would be a tough call, but this guy has me pegged as someone he can
push around (he has half the table listed in that category) and i don’t have to
think too long before i make the call. he’s got KQ and flops big to double up at
the expense of my now-decimated stack. i while later it’s folded to me in the
small blind. i’ve only got about 11 big blinds, and with 1100 in the pot my K7
looks good enough to shove against the solid player on my left. he wakes up with
AJ, reads the situation correctly, and sends me to the rail.

today’s event was painful. i’ll whine about that in a while, but first: an
interesting situation occurred on the 1st hand of the tournament. i was an
innocent bystander to this one. small raise and call. flop is all small, all
clubs. next thing you know, there’s a flurry of raises, and 2 players are all in
for 12,000 each. yikes! one flopped the nuts with A♣J♣ and the other one flopped
the 2nd nuts with K♣9♣. the know-it-alls at the table all agree that the guy
with the 2nd nuts coulda-shoulda gotten away from his hand after he got
min-raised. the min-raise just shouts “i have the nuts” they say. well, i don’t
necessarily agree. the min-raise is scary, but in a $300 tournament people will
play all sorts of hands like they’re the nuts. if you’re the guy with the
king-high flush on the flop you’ve gotta be thinking about how to get full value
out of your hand while not giving away a cheap card. if that plan can include a
way to find out you’re beat and save maybe 1/2 your stack, so much the better. i
wasn’t paying much attention until all the chips ended up in the middle so i
don’t know exactly how the betting went, but i think it’s somewhat likely that i
would get broke in the same spot.

as for the whining: i had big aces 5 times in the 1st 20 minutes. AK,AJ, AK, AQ,
AJ got called and missed the flop every time. i check-folded once and folded to
action before me once,  but the other times i lost some extra chips post-flop
when my continuation bets got called or repopped. pretty frustrating. then still
in level one, i raised with QQ and everyone folded. in level 2 i reraised with
KK and got called in 2 spots. of course the flop has an ace — A♣2♥4♦. they both
check and i bet 2/3 the pot and get called by both. i fold on the river. in
level 3 i’ve got K♠T♠ in the big blind and it’s folded to the SB. i’ve got him
down as being a little clueless. he puts in a min raise and i call of course.
the flop has 2 spades and a J giving me a flush draw, an over, and a backdoor
straight draw. he bets out 500 and i make it 12 to go, leaving me only 3200
behind. he calls. turn is a Q, adding the open-ended straight draw to my
portfolio of outs. he checks and i move in for my last 3200, about the size
ofthe pot. he calls almost immediately. i’ve got a big draw i say. he turns up
A♠4♠. “not as big as i thought” i correct myself. actually, my flush outs are no
good, but i’ve got 6 new outs for pairing my K or T for 12 outs total. i miss
them all and i’m done. his call on the turn is SOOOOO horrible unless he can
come up with some scenario where i called a raise preflop, raised the flop, and
moved in on the turn with no pair on a paint-filled board. i think the exact
hand i had is the only hand i would play that way. nice hand sir.

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blah, and blah.

i played event 3 of the HPT New York Fall Poker Classic on friday, the $500 NL event. fairly small turnout (maybe 120 or so? official results not posted online yet). i didn’t make any real mistakes, but never got anything going. about 4 hours in, i shoved a 10BB stack with 9♣9♠ and got called by K♣K♠. see ya.

i was out of the day’s event just in time to play an “Act 2″ super satellite. there about 75 entries, so they were awarding about 15 seats to the last Act 3 super friday night for a chance to win a seat into the $5K main event. here the blinds go up super fast. in level 5 a guy inexplicably called my preflop raise with Q♣6♥. i had A♣8♦ and the flop came 8♠6♦3♥. i bet the pot and he called again with middle pair. brilliant !but  it didn’t end well for me. nice hand sir. after that i was short, and the blinds and antes ate me up.

then i played 20/40 limit holdem for a while. cards conspired against me for a long time and i was getting a little frustrated, so i made the key strategic switch to playing badly. here’s an awesome hand: jon e raises preflop from early position, and against his opening range my A♥J♦ looks sorta decent so i 3-bet to get heads up. the flop comes K♣K♠3♦ and he checks. i smell a trap and check behind. absolutely horrible play! now the turn comes a 6 and he checks again and i’m kinda stuck without a play. i think he’s going to call me down with just about any hand that has me beat. i check again, hoping to win a showdown with A high. river another blank, check check, and he wins with 7♠7♣. i think my checks on the turn and river were correct, given the absolutely horrible situation i put myself in with the flop check and completely non-scary turn card.

i really shouldn’t play cash games after a bad tournament session. i just never play that well. this whole saga comes on the heals of my post from a couple weeks ago where i said i rarely tilt any more. maybe that was just wishful thinking. this time however, i knew i wasn’t playing well and cashed out before things got really catastrophic. it’s not all bad, by the way… i’ve had a couple good sessions in between where i played well and and also caught some hands. so don’t cry for me, argentina. (are broadway musical references allowed on a poker blog?)

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NY fall poker classic HPT event 1

i made the final table at the first event of the Heartland Poker Tour‘s fall stop at turning stone, my first decent cash in a while. i played pretty well all day, with a couple gutsy and successful moves, a couple mistakes, and a couple lucky breaks.

a big turnout of 245 players showed up for a $200 weekday event. great structure for a low buyin event: 40 minute levels and nice gradual blind increases. for the 1st few hours i cruised along, chipping up slowly without playing any big pots. the only interesting hand during that time was one where i planned to run a big bluff, but didn’t. it went kinda like this:

i open for a raise from the cutoff with the trashy A♣5♣. i get called by the big blind, a guy who knows me pretty well. the flop comes J high rainbow and he checks. i bet about 2/3 of the pot with nuttin’ much and he makes a minimum check raise. i think i’ve got a handle on where he’s at: i feel that he has a medium strength hand or a straight draw, and he wants to slow me down or maybe take it down if i don’t have anything. i call with nothing, with the plan of bluffing the turn if nothing too scary happens. this is a pretty risky plan because i calculate the bluff is going to cost about 1/3 of my chips. the turn is an ace and he checks. ok, new plan! now i think i have the best hand, but i don’t want to get raised off it, so i check behind. river is a blank. check, check, and i take it down with my pair of aces. to his credit, he doesn’t give me too much of a scowl after realizing i called the flop raise with nothing. he didn’t show, but i’m pretty sure plan A would have worked if the ace didn’t come.

by the 400/800 level i had about 20k chips (we started  with 6k) and i’m doing OK. i get moved to a fairly tough table with jimmy keller and another tricky player both with decent stacks at the other end. then this pot comes along:

there’s a limper for $800 and i limp behind in middle position with A♥9♥. the button raises to $3500 and keller calls in the blind. the 1st limper calls also, and now with 12k in the pot i feel obligated to go along for the ride. how did i get myself into this mess? the flop comes J♣8♥4♥, and jimmy leads for 6500. i start thinking. i’ve got at least a nut flush draw, and my guess is keller has a J or pocket tens, or possibly a draw worse than mine. i size up his stack, he’s only got 8000 more, so i don’t have much fold equity, but i’ve got him covered by a few. however, this is interesting: if i shove, the original raiser probably can’t call. if he does keller may be priced in and my nut flush is getting 3:1 odds. if the original raiser doesn’t call, i think i most likely have 12 outs against jimmy, and there’s some chance he’ll call with a worse hand than mine (he’ll be getting a decent apparent price on a draw), and there’s also some chance he’ll fold a hand that’s got me beat now, like a pocket pair or a weakish J. i hate to put my life on the line with a draw that’s somewhat likely to be called, but this seems like a real opportunity. i take it and jam my stack into the middle. the preflop raiser mucks instantly, and keller starts thinking. to my surprise, he folds. i double up without having to draw out. nice!

a while later i’ver been whittled back down to 26k or so. i’ve been moved again and blinds are 600/1200.  i’m in the big blind and it’s folded around to the small. he limps, and i look down to find pocket eights. i jack it up to 5000 and he quickly jams his 14k into the pot. ugh. not the spot i want to be in with eights, but i’m getting a decent price and i make the call. he turns up A♣K♥ and i feel a little better that i’m a small favorite instead of a big dog. but a king comes on the board and i ship the majority of my chips to the right.

i survive a while with my now shortish stack, and look down to see K♣K♠, a welcome sight. i make a normal-size raise for 1/3 of my stack and hope to get played with. i get one caller from a blind with a decent stack. the flop just has to contain an ace, doesn’t it? yep A♣9♥4♠… and he checks. i hate the ace up there, but decide i’m going with my hand. i move in and he folds. i don’t realize until afterward that i played this hand pretty badly. after i make the decision i’m not folding the hand, i should check behind and give him the chance to bluff at the turn. doh!

out of immediate danger but still short, i soon pick up A♣K♣. all righty then! there’s a raise before me and i only have about 12BB, making this hand a no-brainer. i come over the top. i get called, and he shows A♠K♦. there are 2 diamonds on the flop and another on the turn, but the river blanks off and we chop up the dead money. whew!

i come from the dinner break to a stack with about 11 big blinds in it, and the antes were taking a rapid toll. near the money bubble, and i get moved again. big ben, a guy i know as an excellent limit holdem cash game player, is at the other end of the table with a very big stack, and he’s raising almost every pot. i play back at him with AJ and he folds, but i’m barely staying ahead of the blinds. i find AQ and shove 8 or 9BB and nobody calls. the very next hand i find A♣Q♣ and shove again. this time i get called by A♠K♣. he flops a K but i river a straight. sorry dude. suckout #1… yay, i’m still alive!

a while later i raise with 9♣9♦ and guy shoves all in for 20k i’ve got him covered by a few and i’m priced into the call. he’s got A♠K♥ and i win the race and suddenly i’m not that short any more.

by now we’re in the money (25 got paid) and i go on a little rush, eventually building my stack up to $170K, making me second in chips at my table with 2 tables left. i take a couple hits but arrive at the final table with a playable $100k. i take another hit and i’m a little desperate again at 60k. time for suckout #2… i get most of my money in with 9♣9♠ against Q♥Q♦ but make a set and bust the guy. with $120k i’m about average. there’s a very big stack on my right, manned by a young guy who appears to be smart and aggressive. people start talking about a chop but we keep playing.

when we get down to 8 there’s some serious lobbying for a chop. the deal is floated that we chop it up evenly for about $4500 each with each of us throwing a few hundred extra to the big stack to give him $7k (nominal 1st place money is $13k). a bunch of guys want this deal because it brings the payout in under the new $5K reporting rule, so they think they don’t need to pay taxes. good luck with that. i hate these big multiway deals, but i decide to agree if everyone else wants it. several factors argue for the deal: equity-wise it’s a good deal for me with my average size stack. plus, the big stack seems to play quite well and he’s on my immediate right. since we’re not seeing many flops i don’t really like having him there. and it’s midnight. we’ve been playing 14 hours and if we go any later i don’t have much chance of playing tomorrow. one woman who’s second in chips but not very experienced doesn’t really want to deal but she doesn’t really want to be the only objector. i try to let her off the hook by telling her that she shouldn’t ever feel bad about turning down a deal. but instead of saying “let’s play” she keeps waffling. the short stack offers to throw her a few hundred extra. eventually she agrees, but then she immediately regrets it. too late, everyone else is already out of their chairs and headed for the payout table.

i kind of felt bad that she let herself be pressured into a deal she wasn’t really happy with, but she did it to herself, and frankly she did get a good deal. she plays OK, but she was tired and inexperienced, and i don’t think she was going to be able to hold onto her 2nd place chip position for long.

i cashed for $4570 (officially $4870 but we each donated $300 to the chip leader) –  not bad for a $200 buyin tournament! official results

i got home at 1:00 AM. i wanted to play today’s $300 event, but this morning i could tell i wasn’t going to have the stamina for another 14 hour day, so i went to work instead. tomorrow’s another day, and i’ll be there for the $500 event.

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reappearance of the tilt monster

i’ve been on a 5-week long streak of consecutive  winning cash-game sessions. that came to crashing halt last night when i just couldn’t get on track in the 20/40 limit holdem game.

losses happen, but that’s not the bad part. i could have quit with a modest loss late at night when i was tired and the game wasn’t that good. i had been playing for 9 hours already and had dug myself out of pretty deep hole, back to almost even. the game got short, and we were playing 4-handed. 2 of my opponents were  strong players. the other one is not a very good player, but he’s not hopeless either, and the short-handed game suits his tenacious tendancies. short-handed limit holdem against competent opposition is a very “swingy” game; most hands are 2 or 3 bets preflop, the blinds come around quickly, and the game plays quickly — a lot of hands per hour.  i was planning to quit at the next dealer change. but instead of calling it a day and booking my streak-ending modest loss, i kept playing, hoping to get “unstuck”. nope, didn’t happen. i didn’t play very well, didn’t catch many cards, and when i finally packed it in i was down over 40BB — back in the same hole i’d been in hours previous.  ugh!!!

avoiding tilt (emotional factors that negatively affect your play) is a big part of winning poker.  over the years i’ve become better at avoiding tilt, and pretty good at snapping myself out of it (or else quitting for day). i almost had convinced myself i was on my way to becoming a tilt-free player. but like a drunk falling off the wagon, last night  i made a bad decision to keep playing based on non-rational factors (my unwillingness to book a loss) and the results weren’t pretty.

live and learn. i hope.

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poker math:the widespread availability of bad information

 i was sitting at a poker table last night with a very good player (mike) and another guy who i’ll call OG (for “opinionated guy”). OG is a common breed of poker player who plays fairly competently, but won’t ever get better because he feels that he plays “correctly” already, and the rest is up to the fates. aside: he’s often the same guy who thinks he can’t win at blackjack because the other players at the table make bad plays.

so this question came up somehow: if you have pocket jacks how often does at least one overcard come on the flop? OG says very authoritatively “it’s 76%”.  i couldn’t remember the number, but i knew 76% wasn’t right. “it’s more like 50%” i offer (spoiler alert: the correct number is 57%). tony says “no. that’s way too low. i think it’s 76%. then he starts to  do calculations in his head and said “oh, it’s 72% exactly”.  mike says “oh yeah? i used to know all this stuff”

ok, at this point i know OG is wrong, but mike doesn’t.  the correct formula is too complicated even for a genius like OG to do in his head.  i do a quick calculation and see how he got “exactly 72%”, and i know for sure it’s not right (math geek details are at the bottom of the post)

i’d like to correct him for mike’s benefit, but i don’t want to argue with OG about it for 3 reasons: a) i don’t really want OG to think harder about poker. i don’t think there’s much chance of that, but why risk it? b) i can’t remember the correct number myself and can’t do it my head, and c) i remember this important advice:

never wrestle with a pig. you both get dirty and only the pig enjoys it.

this morning i sit down to look up the correct probabilities (which i assumed would be easier than caculating them myself). google finds me this  article, which informs me assuredly that the probability of flopping an overcard to your jacks is…… 72%!

i have a momentary panic attack. this must be correct, it was Published on the Internet! OG was right! where did i go wrong? man i must have been stupid last night. no wonder i had my worst session in months!!!

deep breath. um, nope. it’s 57%, but thanks for playing!  luckily, the guy’s advice about playing pocket jacks is generally better than his math.

math geek details:

P=1-(38/50)*(37/49)*(36/48) =  57%.

i know how OG (and internet-article-guy) came up with “exactly 72%”: he counted 12 outs X 3 (for 3 cards on the flop) for 36/50. that’s wrong because if you just add probabilitites, you double count the times where more than 1 overcard appear. you can get a correct answer using a similar approach, but it looks messy: P = 36/50 – (P2 -P3) where P2 – P3 is the probability of at least 2 overcards flopping. for the record, P2 = 3*(12/50)(11/49)  and P3=(12/50)(11/49)(10/48).

generally for rare events, it’s safe to add probabilities, because the effect of multiple occurences is very small. therefore the probability of hitting your gutshot draw with 2 to come is about twice the probability with only one card to come. but for not-so-rare events, adding probabilities that might overlap is very inaccurate. obviously the probability of flopping at least one red card is nowhere close to 150% ;)

[edit] math geek trick: often the easy way to calculate a joint probability is to calculate the probability of the event NOT happening and subtracting from 1. the probability of flopping all black is about 1/8 (but not exactly 1/8! think about it), so the probability of flopping at least 1 red card is about 7/8.

there’s a good reference on poker math on wikipedia.

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interesting cash game hand

i was playing 5/5 no-limit yesterday, and this hand came up. luckily i folded preflop and had no part of it.

there was a raise and several callers preflop, which was a par for the course in this game. the flop comes down Q♥J♣T♣. check check small bet call call. the turn is 5♥, a complete blank. then all hell breaks loose. the 1st to act is Long, a loose aggressive player. he bets out 60 into the $150 pot. the 2nd to act is a complete loose cannon. i think he probably plays horribly under most circumstances, but now he’s also on tilt. he moves in for $380. the next to act is a solid young player. he’s got a little over $1K in front of him, and he thinks for a bit and calls the $380. action is back to Long. he starts thinking and thinking. he ignores the all-in player and asks the guy with money left “you got anything?”. the other guy doesn’t know Long, and he’s almost offended. “no, i called $380 just for kicks”. Long thinks some more and finally moves in for $1100. now the young guy is in a real bind. he moans and thinks for another long while. it doesn’t seem likely that Long has AK, but he can’t rule it out. now a crowd has gathered on the rail; this is shaping up to be a $2500 pot. he finally calls but doesn’t show his hand. the river is 3♣. Long shows Q♣5♣. he flopped a flush draw with top pair, turned 2 pair, and rivered the flush. the first all-in guy doesn’t show, and reaches for rebuy money. the young guy shows J♥J♦ for a set on the flop. Long scoops $2500.

a lot of discussion ensues about Long’s play. in most circumstances 2 pair and a flush draw is a monster hand, but how much do you like it on that coordinated flop with a non-nut draw and only one card to come, with an all-in and a large overcall from a solid player before you? but the solid player knows that the all-in player is out of control, so his calling range there is broader than usual. Long’s play is really not clear to me.

some people said they thought Long should call and see what happens on the river. originally i didn’t like that option much because he loses some fold equity, he might not get paid off if he hits his flush, and he’s going to be in a really tough spot if he misses his draw and the other guy bets. but now i’m not so sure. i think if the other guy bets the river, Long’s 2 pair is no good.

BTW, i think the young guy’s smooth call on the turn is OK. i lot of people might say he should protect his hand there, but he’s inviting a bad call from 2 pair or pair-and-a-draw hands that might *think* they have odds to call. as it happened, he got Long to shove as a 3:1 dog (11 outs if the 1st all in guy didn’t have a queen or any clubs) getting less than 3:2 on his money.

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